Core Concepts

Perpetual Futures Primer

Perpetual futures (perps) are derivative contracts that let traders take leveraged long or short positions on an asset without an expiration date. Unlike traditional futures, perps use a funding rate mechanism to keep the contract price aligned with the spot price.

Key characteristics:

• No expiry — Positions can be held indefinitely
• Leverage — Typically 1x to 125x depending on exchange and asset
• Funding rates — Periodic payments between longs and shorts to maintain price parity
• Mark price — Used for liquidation calculations, derived from spot and futures prices
• 24/7 operation — No market close, no circuit breakers, continuous global participation

PerpDesk is built specifically for these dynamics.

Prediction Markets Primer

Prediction markets are venues where users trade contracts on real-world outcomes — elections, economic releases, sports, and event-driven questions. Each contract has a YES side and a NO side, both priced between 0 and 1.

Key characteristics:

• YES / NO contracts — Buy YES if you think the outcome will happen, NO if you don't
• Mid-price ≈ implied probability — A YES quoted at 0.62 reflects the market's ~62% probability the event resolves true
• Resolution — At settlement, the winning side pays $1 per contract; the losing side pays $0
• Two flagship venues — Polymarket (crypto-native, on-chain) and Kalshi (US-regulated, CFTC-designated)
• Edge — The gap between your calibrated probability and the market mid

PerpDesk's prediction-market analyst, Plop, reads order books, base rates, and quote drift on these venues and publishes a calibrated p(YES) alongside the gap to the market.

Market Regimes

A market regime describes the current behavioral state of a market. Vanta (the regime detection agent) continuously classifies markets into five states:

Trending

Characteristics: Strong directional momentum with sustained movement

• Price making higher highs/lows (uptrend) or lower lows/highs (downtrend)
• Volume confirming the direction
• Support/resistance levels shifting in the trend direction

Best strategies: Momentum, breakout, trend-following. Worst strategies: Mean-reversion, range-bound.

Ranging

Characteristics: Price oscillating within defined boundaries with no directional bias

• Bouncing between support and resistance
• Volume declining as traders lose conviction

Best strategies: Mean-reversion, oscillator-based. Worst strategies: Momentum, breakout.

Volatile

Characteristics: Rapid price swings with unclear direction

• High intra-day ranges
• Whipsaws that catch stop-losses
• Liquidation cascades possible
• Often triggered by macro events or funding rate spikes

Best strategies: Short-term scalping, volatility-adjusted positioning. Worst strategies: Large positions, trend-following.

Quiet

Characteristics: Low volatility, narrow ranges, often preceding a significant move

• Compression pattern with low volume
• Can last hours or days before breakout

Best strategies: Waiting/preparation, breakout-ready positions. Worst strategies: Forcing trades.

Transitioning

Characteristics: Market shifting from one regime to another

• Regime signals conflicting
• Uncertainty elevated, high risk of whipsaw

Best strategies: Reduced sizing, flexible exits, wait for confirmation. Worst strategies: Aggressive entry, heavy leverage.

Why regimes matter: A momentum strategy that works in trending markets will lose money in a range. Riven adapts its consensus recommendations based on the regime Vanta detects.

Agent Pipeline

PerpDesk's 7 agents follow a structured pipeline. Six form the crypto perps consensus chain; the seventh — Plop — runs a parallel pipeline for prediction markets.

Crypto Perps Consensus Chain

In the perps chain, each agent's output feeds the next:

Step 1: Analyze (parallel)

• Vanta detects the market regime using technical indicators (EMA, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, ATR, StochRSI)
• Luma aggregates cross-venue signals (funding rates, open interest, volume anomalies, liquidation data)
• Meridian monitors macro context (economic events, regulatory news, cross-asset signals)

These three agents run in parallel on every candle close.

Step 2: Consensus

• Riven receives input from Vanta, Luma, and Meridian
• Riven runs a consensus debate, weighing and synthesizing inputs
• Produces one broadcast recommendation per symbol: entry, targets, stops, position sizing

Step 3: Risk Filter

• Brix reviews the recommendation against your personal risk parameters
• Brix checks: position sizing limits, total exposure, leverage caps, daily loss thresholds
• Brix is a deterministic rules engine — it enforces hard limits with no AI interpretation

Step 4: Execution Guidance

• Koda receives the risk-filtered recommendation
• Koda adds execution guidance: entry style (sniper, ladder, or market), timing considerations
• The final package is presented to you for approval

Once you approve, the trade executes on your connected exchange with continuous stop-loss and take-profit monitoring.

An Orchestrator coordinates multi-agent communication behind the scenes, routing messages between agents and managing the pipeline flow.

Prediction-Market Pipeline (Plop)

Plop runs a separate, simpler pipeline for prediction-market contracts. It does not flow through Riven, Brix, or Koda.

1. You drop a Polymarket or Kalshi market URL, slug, or contract ID into chat — or Plop surfaces one from the discovery feed.
2. Plop pulls the order book, quote drift, historical base rates, and surrounding news.
3. Plop publishes a calibrated p(YES), the market mid, the edge, a confidence score, and citations.

Today's reads are advisory. Signed-order execution into Polymarket and Kalshi is on Plop's roadmap.

Autonomy Levels

Every PerpDesk agent has an autonomy level you control:

Monitoring Mode

Agent observes and logs insights, takes no action. Best for:

• Learning the system
• Understanding agent logic before trusting execution
• Reviewing recommendations before they happen

Advisory Mode

Agent proposes actions and waits for your approval. Best for:

• Trades where you want final say
• Building trust with the system
• Most traders' default setting

Active Mode

Agent acts within your configured boundaries. Best for:

• Routine execution of approved recommendations
• Risk management (Brix always operates at this level minimum)
• Continuous monitoring during off-hours

You can set different autonomy levels for different agents. For example:

• Vanta, Luma, Meridian: Active (analysis agents run continuously)
• Riven: Advisory (you review strategy recommendations)
• Brix: Always active (risk enforcement is non-negotiable)
• Koda: Advisory (you approve execution before it happens)

Human-in-the-Loop: The Core Principle

PerpDesk ensures the trader is always the final decision-maker:

What you control:

• Trade approval — every recommendation can be approved, modified, or rejected
• Risk parameters — hard limits no agent can breach
• Agent autonomy — toggle each agent's independence level
• Override capability on any recommendation
• Emergency stop available at all times

What agents handle automatically:

• Market scanning and regime detection (Vanta)
• Cross-venue signal aggregation (Luma)
• Macro context monitoring (Meridian)
• Risk enforcement and guardrails (Brix)

Agents vs. Bots vs. Copy Trading

The key difference: PerpDesk agents are specialists that coordinate with each other, run consensus debates, and present a validated recommendation. You remain in control as the desk lead.

Trading Terminology

Funding Rate

The periodic payment traders with long positions pay to traders with short positions (or vice versa). This keeps perpetual prices aligned with spot prices. High funding rates create cost considerations and arbitrage opportunities.

Mark Price

The price used for liquidation calculations. Derived from a combination of spot price and futures price to prevent manipulation.

Liquidation Cascade

When a large position is liquidated, the forced market order can trigger other positions, creating a waterfall of closures. These create volatility spikes and often represent tactical opportunities.

Open Interest (OI)

The total number of open positions in a perp market. Rising OI + rising price suggests strong conviction. Falling OI + rising price suggests weak hands exiting. Divergences between exchanges can signal potential moves.

Basis

The difference between perpetual price and spot price. Positive basis (perps above spot) often signals bullish sentiment and high funding. Negative basis is bearish.

Multi-Exchange Trading

PerpDesk currently supports trading on Hyperliquid and Lighter, with more exchanges coming soon. A mock exchange is also available for paper trading.

When you connect exchanges, your agents coordinate across venues:

• Luma aggregates funding rates and OI data across connected exchanges plus additional data sources
• Riven factors cross-venue data into consensus recommendations
• Brix calculates risk across all connected positions
• Koda provides execution guidance for your chosen venue

Market data is sourced from multiple providers to give agents the broadest possible view of market conditions.