Plop
AI agent for prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. Calibrated p(YES), edge vs. market mid, and confidence-scored reads grounded in real order-book data.
What Plop Does
Plop is the desk's prediction-market analyst. Where Vanta, Luma, Meridian, and Riven read crypto charts, Plop reads odds — political races, economic outcomes, sports, and event-driven contracts traded on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Drop a market URL, slug, or contract ID into chat. Plop returns a calibrated probability that the YES contract resolves true, compares it against the current market mid, and tells you where the edge is — or that there isn't one. Every read ships with a confidence score, so "I'm sure it's a coin flip" is distinguishable from "I have no idea yet."
What Plop Reads
Plop's data plane is built for odds, not candles:
- Order book — current YES / NO mid-price, bid and ask depth
- Quote drift — recent movement in the mid relative to the prior session
- Historical base rates — outcomes from comparable past contracts
- Surrounding news flow — what is actually happening around the contract
- Discovery feed — PerpDesk's continuously-running scan across Polymarket and Kalshi, so new contracts surface without manual curation
Plop does not invent data. Every read cites the specific numbers it's looking at.
How the Probability Read Works
Plop publishes a calibrated p(YES) — its own estimate that the YES contract resolves true — alongside the market's current mid. The gap is the edge:
| Plop's p(YES) | Market mid | Read |
|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | 0.48 | YES is mispriced low — edge on YES |
| 0.31 | 0.45 | NO is mispriced low — edge on NO |
| 0.55 | 0.54 | No edge — market is calibrated |
Each opinion ships with a confidence score, so a "57% with low confidence" read is treated differently from a "57% with high confidence" one.
What Plop Publishes
For each market, Plop returns:
| Field | What it is |
|---|---|
| Calibrated p(YES) | Plop's own probability estimate, 0.00 – 1.00 |
| Market mid | The current Polymarket or Kalshi mid-price |
| Edge | Direction (YES / NO / none) and magnitude |
| Confidence | How sure Plop is — always surfaced, never buried |
| Citations | The base rates, order-book numbers, and quote movement Plop used |
The reasoning chain is grounded in cited data, never invented.
Cross-Venue Coverage
Plop speaks the universal language of odds, so adding venues is incremental, not architectural:
- Polymarket and Kalshi are wired in today
- Smart-money disagreement — when Plop's p(YES) diverges meaningfully from Polymarket vs. Kalshi pricing on equivalent contracts, it surfaces the gap
That cross-venue gap is where prediction-market alpha tends to live: the same outcome priced differently across two books.
Configuration
| Setting | Options | Default |
|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity | Calm / Alert / Hyper | Alert |
| Venues | Polymarket / Kalshi / Both | Both |
| Edge threshold | Custom % | 5% |
| Confidence floor | 0.0 – 1.0 | 0.5 |
Higher sensitivity surfaces more contracts. The edge threshold and confidence floor trim borderline reads out of the feed.
Roadmap
Plop's foundation — calibrated probabilities, edge detection, and the conversational interface — ships today. The following capabilities are in development.
- Resolution forecasting at scale — time-to-resolution, contract-term nuance, and the catalysts that actually move outcomes.
- Macro-aware priors — automatically folding Meridian's risk-on / risk-off read into prediction-market calls. Elections move differently in a risk-off tape.
- Execution — end-to-end signed-order flow into Polymarket and Kalshi so a Plop opinion can become a Plop-assisted trade inside PerpDesk, non-custodially.
- Multi-venue arbitrage — as more prediction venues come online (Azuro and beyond), Plop will surface and act on cross-venue mispricings.
Under the Hood
Type: conversational analysis agent for prediction-market contracts.
Trigger: user message (market URL, slug, or contract ID) plus the prediction-market discovery loop.
Data sources: Polymarket and Kalshi order books, quote history, base rates, and the news flow surrounding each contract.
Pipeline: Plop runs its own probability pipeline. It does not flow through Vanta → Riven → Brix → Koda, which is the crypto perps consensus chain. Plop sits in the same War Room and chat surface but operates on a different asset class.
Custody: today's reads are advisory. When execution ships, signed-order flow into Polymarket and Kalshi will run non-custodially, consistent with the rest of PerpDesk.